Golden News

Volume 14 No 15 October 17, 2000   

The Weekly Bulletin of the Rotary Club of Kowloon Golden Mile
http://www.rckgm.org 

OCTOBER IS VOCATIONAL SERVICE MONTH

Preamble By Urchin

This one might seem a bit hurried to you, and if so I apologize. This week is the start of our preparations for my son's and his “bride-to be” ’s wedding and as you can imagine things are getting hectic.

Last Meeting

The meeting opened at 1316 hrs with slightly better attendance than last week, but with still lots of room for improvement!! (says the Boss!!).

Visiting Rotarians: PPs Michael Harilela and MS Kalra of Kowloon North and Rtn Oliver Brosche of Berchtesgaden Rotary Club in Badreichenhall in (I think, Germany!).

El Presidento Cassidio welcomed back Rtn Agnes and mentioned the day’s speaker; see later.

There followed some sort of musical sounds that I found out later to be “Happy Birthday” to the Rtns mentioned in the last Golden News! KGM Rotarians … don’t give up your day-time jobs.

Rtn Carolla as acting Sgt-at-arms did well as expected and also:-

Warned the club of the coming participation of a largely KGM team in this year’s Trailwalker, and

miraculously collected pledges amounting to about $15,000

before the following guests were introduced.

Guest                     of Rtn                    From

Mr Pico Dialdos               David                              HK

Ms Susie Misini               Balu                       HK

Ms Marcelle O’Connell     Jane                     HK

Ms Erika Taylor              Patricia                 HK

Mr Per Larsen                 Balu                       HK

Rtn (Community Service) Silva then spoke in confirmation of the visit to newcomers to Hong Kong – see previous bulletin followed by PP Brian who spoke of his coming participation in the District Ten Pin Bowling Contest, of which he is the current Champion.

Rtn (Programme Chairman) Elissa then introduce our speaker Mr David O’Rear of the Economist Group Asia-Pacific who spoke on the Economic Outlook for Asia. Regretfully my abysmal knowledge of the subject and inadequate note-taking ability require me to reproduce below the notes kindly provided by Mr O’Rear. Oh and by the way the picture of our speaker provided by Rtn John is attached to this email. Regret I had trouble putting it inside the email this time!!:-

“We at the Economist Group Asia-Pacific expect this part of the world to grow between 3.7% and 6.2% next year and about the same in 2002.

That may seem like a fairly broad range for an economic forecast, but points to one very important factor: Japan.

Japan accounts for 55% of the Asian economy, including Australia and New Zealand, India and Pakistan, China and Mongolia and everything in between. So, when Japan’s very slow growth is added to the more rapid pace of the rest of the region the result is slower.

With luck, Japan will grow in the next two years, by about 2% a year. However, growth is not guaranteed and in fact there are some very disturbing signs that the economy may slide back down into recession.

As for the rest of the region, there is a slight problem: most of the data is terrible, and the next largest economy, China is worst of all.

China in the last three years grew an average of 8% a year. Or, if you don’t accept the national government’s figures, but want to look at each of the individual provinces, it grew 10% a year. The difference over the past ten years has swung between almost nothing and more that 5% which is about US$50 Billion.

So, let me say that we expect the national government to announce that China grew about 7.5-8.0% a year over the next two years.

In Taiwan we expect yet another year of 6-6.5% growth, assuming China doesn’t do something drastic. Korea is likely to have a pretty good year but there are some serious problems that are yet to be handled, particularly regarding the bureaucracy and the financial system.

Here in Hong Kong we anticipate continued adjustments to the Crisis that most of the rest of the region has already worked out. The reason for this is the HK$peg to the US$, and that is causing huge drops in prices. Hong Kong will probably have about 5.5% growth in 2001 and less that 3% in 2000.

South-east Asia has had a pretty bad year politically and as a result is likely to slow down over the next two years. Growth will only be between 5.5% and 6%.

All of this depends on a few critical factors.

(a)              The US must have a soft landing, or all bets are off and Asia drops down to very little - if any - growth.

(b)             Oil prices have to come down to less that US$25/bbl and stay there. The price people pay, in their own currencies, has never been higher and that is changing the cost of doing business.

(c)              Consumers have to start spending money again. The fastest growing economies in Asia are those exporting to the US, and even if there is a gentle slow down in America, the growth rates in Asia will not be very impressive without a serious resumption of Asian demand.”

Prospective Member

The Membership Committee and the Board of Directors have approved an application for Active membership in favour of Mr Per Larsen; membership classification - Electronics . Any club member who wishes to lodge an objection to this proposal is required to do so in writing to the Club Secretary within 7 days from the date of this notice (i.e. on or before 21st October, 2000), setting out the reasons for their objection. 

If no objections are received within the specified period (and subject to advance payment of the ruling joining fee), Mr Larsen can be inducted as an Active member of KGM on or after 21st October, 2000. 

Reminder for tomorrow's District Vocational Service Seminar From Rtn Neerja

There seems to be some confusion about the venue. Golden news (volume 14, no 14 dated 10/10/00 Oops – Urch) mentioned this as Peninsula Hotel. The venue is Hong Kong
Hotel. All those who would like to attend, please email:
neerjasujanani@economist.com or call 90705096.
This is an excellent chance to earn a makeup. Also, there are still free places available so please hurry 

Invitation from IPDG Dipo Sani

Actually it Urchin speaking at this minute to tell you that IPDG Dipo’s invitation is attached as an exe file. I can open it but don’t know how to reproduce the Chinese Characters. So much to learn, … so little time!

Just double click the attachment and follow your computers instructions. I assure you it is safe!

On Vocation! With Mazhar Sultana

SELF
I am a cheerful lady, married, with 2 lovely daughters Saphia and Ranee and a son, Sultan, born in the year of monkey, who demonstrates his year positively. 
BELIEF
I believe "Always create your own DREAMS and live your life to the FULLEST!" & " No improvement means going backwards." Where I keep going myself is up the ladder of Life. Finally, on the latest change of my career, seek for what I want - to live the life fullest and have my dreams come true. 
AIA, MY VOCATION
I joined AIA just for 5 years and found this will be where I stay until my retirement for my betterment. It's mission "Your First Choice of Life – with Care, Trust & Professionalism", which really could help a lot of people. Apart from risk management products, we are trained with Finance Management
for Tax, Annuities, Savings and Investment. After a series of training sessions by coaches from the States and a series of Exams, I earned a title as Financial Planner. Actually, it took me a lot of courage to join in the first place, because agents are often looked down upon or looked upon suspiciously by people. My internal dialog always reminds me to work hard to achieve, and not to give up easily. You need to be knowledgeable, resourceful and professional in exchange for which you achieve a marvelous respect from relationships and closeness with friends, clients and people around you. Just keep in mind always act in an ethical way, work towards fullness and happiness of the family, and your work, until all your dreams come to reality. 
MY PAST
20 years before, I started worked as a clerk at HK$600 a month in a small bank, where after a full year, they increased my salary by $40 month, I felt humiliated and quit right away. After a week I found another job as secretary with $400 a month more where I worked honestly for 4 years before it seems I wanted a change. I then continued my study for Diploma in Management Studies in HK Poly University, then Batchelor of Commerce (Marketing & Management) with Curtin University of Technology, Australia. Joined an I/E company as executive secretary, then merchandizer, also later joined Sara Beattie college as Office Manager. Worked for one year without any job satisfaction, moved to an IT Non-Profit Organization - The IT Week as General Manager, which was exciting and enjoyable, and encouraged me started a P.R. firm, where I organized a few huge events - though a lot of hard work, rewarded handsomely. 
SOCIAL ACTIVITY
Apart from my busy schedule of normal work, my social life is quite full. I'm a committed member of H.K. Junior Chamber International, where I have held a post for over 10 years -  LIVING my LIFE to the FULLEST. As the age limitation of Junior Chamber intervened my beloved Rotarian Agnes Kwan introduced me to the RCKGM, where I found people are quite friendly and which keeps me staying on!
Follow your destiny, wherever it leads you with courage, faith and determination, walk into your new journey beyond your wildest imaginings.
I was born in Hong Kong.

Birthday Boys & Girls

There are none that I can see for the week ahead, but do keep your eyes on this spot next week. 

Joke of the Week

A wife came home agog with excitement, eager to tell hubby about her recent medical check-up. “Darling”, she said, “the Doctor told me I have the body of a 21 year old, slim, trim and fit as a fiddle.” “Didn’t he have anything to say about that fat thing you drag around behind you all the time?” answered the husband. “Oh no sweet” she replied disarmingly, “your name didn’t come up at all during my examination”.

URCHIN